World Cup 2022 Semi Final Betting Tips & Predictions

Jun 14 2023
8 min. read
Morocco World Cup
Ben Chopping - 888sport Canada writer
By Ben Chopping

The surprise results keep rolling in at the 2022 FIFA World Cup, with the semi-finals playing host to Croatia and the first African side to reach this stage, Morocco.

Now, it’s anyone’s bet which nations will make it to the final. Argentina looks to stop Croatia from making it back-to-back final appearances, while the Moroccans will face the reigning champions, France.

Here’s how the sport betting markets are looking at the World Cup semi-finals and the best odds on offer.

World Cup Semi-Finals Best Odds

  • Argentina vs Croatia: Argentina to Qualify -280

  • Argentina vs Croatia: Lionel Messi to Score Anytime +125

  • France vs Morocco: France and Over 1.5 Goals -105

  • France vs Morocco: Antoine Griezmann to Score Anytime +225

Argentina vs Croatia: South Americans Favoured to Progress

Kicking off at 2 pm ET on December 13, Argentina vs Croatia sees the last two runners-up of the 2018 and 2014 World Cups meet for another shot at the crown. 

Argentina ended up toughing it out in a penalty shootout after holding a 2-0 lead through to the final ten minutes of the game against the Netherlands. 

Nahuel Molina put La Albicelestes ahead at the 35-minute mark, and Lionel Messi looked to secure the win with a well-placed penalty in the 73rd minute. Then, the Dutch brought on the towering Wout Weghorst.

Standing 1.97m, Weghorst made an immediate impact, finding space in the box to nod a header past Emiliano Martínez. At the very end of injury time, a crafty free-kick along the floor to Weghorst saw him bundle it in. 

The game made its way to penalties, which Argentina won 4-3. Now, they face another side that made it through the quarter-finals on penalties. 

Brazil dominated much of the game against Croatia, getting what looked to be the conclusive goal in the first half of extra-time via some sublime one-touch play to get Neymar in on goal and dancing around the goalie.

Out of nowhere, Brazil was caught sleeping. Croatia surged up the field, Mislav Oršić found himself in space down the left, squared it to the 1.93m Bruno Petković, and he scored with Croatia’s first shot on target. 

The game went to penalties, and once again, Dominik Livaković was triumphant. The Croatian goalie had been excellent all game, stopped Brazil’s first attempt in the shootout, and guided the Europeans to a 4-2 win. 

Croatia has proven to be stubborn in defence, and Livaković is in the form of his life. However, the World Cup odds are favouring Argentina to qualify at -280 to Croatia’s +220.

Knowing how resolute Croatia has been, it’s not a surprise that a tie in 90 minutes is on the cards at +235, but Argentina is in at -125 to get the job done in regular time. 

For those expecting a repeat of the side’s penalty shootout heroics, Croatia has odds of +1000 to win on penalties. 

Argentina vs Croatia: Messi to Make the Difference

Argentina’s attacking play has been the focus of praise, but they’ve been remarkably strong at the back.

Coming into the World Cups semi-finals, Argentina held the best record for shots allowed per game at 4.4. Croatia, on the other hand, ranks 21st in the tournament by allowing 13.2 shots per game.

Of course, the stellar goalkeeping of Livaković has been decisive, stopping the glut of shots that make it on target, but Lionel Messi is still at +125 to score anytime. 

Croatia’s ability to break could catch an overconfident Argentina side at any time, just as it did Brazil.

With the most shots per game for the team at 2.6, the speed of Ivan Perišić might just unlock the Argentine backline at +500 to score anytime. 

Then again, the towering presence of Bruno Petković could trouble the South Americans in a similar way to Weghorst, and he’s at +450 to find the back of the net during the game. 

While Croatia prides itself on its defensive structure and Argentina has held up well at the back, Argentina to win and over 1.5 goals is at +140. 

On the flip side, Croatia scoring first and then shutting up shop to get the victory could happen, but the +925 odds for Croatia to win and under 1.5 goals show it as quite unlikely, per the oddsmakers. 

Argentina and Morocco are all that stand in the way of the 2022 FIFA World Cup Final being a repeat of the final in Moscow four-and-a-half years ago.

France vs Morocco: Fairytale Run Expected to End Here

Neutrals around the world will be looking to France vs Morocco at 2 pm ET on December 14 as the ultimate David vs Goliath, with Canadians hoping the game further proves that Group F had the toughest draw.

Morocco has stopped every team that’s been put in front of them on the backbone of stalwart defensive play. It’s far more challenging to break a robust defensive team than it is to stop a great attacking side. 

Last time out, on the back of a win on penalties against Spain, the Atlas Lions faced the other nation of the Iberian Peninsula, Portugal. 

Again, Morocco refused to give the Portuguese forwards any space, closing down every inch of the defensive half.

Just before the break, a towering leap from Youssef En-Nesyri got his head above goalie and centre back to nod the ball into the back of the net. From there, Morocco got to do what it does best: defend. 

While Cristiano Ronaldo did make some dangerous plays, primarily as an attempted provider, some heroics from Yassine Bounou in goal again saw them go further than any African side ever has at the FIFA World Cup. 

For France, there was a somewhat surprisingly tough battle with England in the quarter-finals, who, for much of the game, looked on par with Les Bleus. 

Kylian Mbappé was kept quiet via a team effort, and Raphaël Varane, Dayot Upamecano, and Theo Hernández looked under pressure often. 

Still, against a team not accustomed to being behind, France knew that scoring first was key, and that’s what they did. 

Star of the show Antoine Griezmann made his first impact 17 minutes in by teeing up Aurélien Tchouaméni, who fired in from distance past the full-stretch Jordan Pickford. 

A 54th-minute penalty got England back in the game and allowed them to revert to the side’s usual style, but a big cross into the box with 12 minutes left found the head of Olivier Giroud between both England centre-backs, at Pickford’s near post, and he still managed to send it in. 

On 81 minutes, a foolish shove from Hernández in the box granted England a late chance to get level again, but Harry Kane blasted it over the bar despite from the spot not 30 minutes earlier. 

France’s ability to see off a competitive England side even with Mbappé nearly neutralized all game has flung the French to the top of the World Cup odds outright and at -450 to qualify from the semi-finals.

Morocco is the heavy underdog once again, which the African may even relish. Still, the oddsmakers have them out at +620 to win the game and +333 to qualify. 

France vs Morocco: Will Morocco’s Defence Finally Break?

Morocco has been rock-solid at the back, and while the side has stopped some of the most exciting attacks at the World Cup, France is a different beast altogether, boasting speed, size, and, importantly, experience. 

As shown against England, France knows how to open up opponents and explore additional avenues of attack if one or two pipelines are shut down. 

If they score first and Morocco is forced to open up, it could get messy, with France at +310 to win both halves in the sport betting odds.

Even Morocco’s ideal situation of scoring first and battling to the final minutes, as the Atlas Lions did against Portugal, is seen as a long shot, with +1225 odds given to Morocco to win and under 1.5 goals. 

Both teams not to score is at -188, and France to win and there to be over 1.5 goals is at -105, signalling that the bookies see the semi-finals as the place where Morocco finally sees its defence get solved.

While Mbappé and Giroud lead the World Cup scoring with five and four goals each and are at +125 and +160 to score anytime, respectively, these are the two who Morocco will swarm with three players every time the ball comes near. 

Perhaps look to masterful playmaker Antoine Griezmann in attacking midfield to find the breakthrough at +225. 

Playing just in front of the defence, and with Adrien Rabiot and Tchouaméni often loitering further forward to occupy opposing midfielders, he might just find himself with enough space to pop a shot on goal. 

The 2022 FIFA World Cup has produced some incredible storylines, and while many will be hoping for Morocco to add yet another chapter to their incredible story, the odds are truly stacked against them here.

*Credit for all images in this article belongs to AP Photo*

 

FIRST PUBLISHED: 12th December 2022

About the Author See all Ben Chopping Articles
Ben Chopping
Ben Chopping - 888sport Canada writer

Ben is very much a sports nerd, being obsessed with statistical deep dives and the numbers behind the results and performances.

Top of the agenda are hockey, soccer, and boxing, but there's always time for the NFL, cricket, Formula One, and a bit of mixed martial arts.