Even with the late heroics from the likes of Japan and the Korea Republic to escape the group stages, the quarter final stage of the 2022 FIFA World Cup have just the one entrant defying the odds. 

Morocco shut up shop against Spain and sealed it on penalties, giving them a chance to make it further than any other African team in the history of the World Cup if its stars can get past Portugal. 

Here’s a look at the best odds for the upcoming round of games, taking place on December 9 and 10.

World Cup Quarter-Finals Best Odds

Read on for the previews and odds of the World Cup quarter-finals games.

Croatia vs Brazil

Japan came out swinging in their last-16 game with Croatia, scoring late in the first half to force Croatia to push the agenda. 

Ivan Perišić netting ten minutes into the second half stung the Samurai Blue, but they continued to pose a threat through to the last minute. 

In the end, sloppy penalties from Japan proved to be their undoing, with Dominik Livaković stopping three of the four low-effort shots with ease. Croatia walked away as the 3-1 winners on penalties. 

Brazil made it through with far less drama than their quarter-final opponents. Before the half-time whistle, Vinícius, Neymar, Richarlison, and Lucas Paquetá powered the Seleção to a 4-0 lead.

With the game in the bag, Brazil stood off a bit more, allowed the Korea Republic a bit more of the ball, and conceded the one goal to Paik Seung-ho to see out the victory.

While it would be somewhat vindicating for Canada to see Croatia – and possibly Morocco – progress to the semi-finals, Brazil is the heavy favourite for a reason.

To qualify from the quarter-finals via a full-time win, extra time, or penalties, Brazil is in at -600, while Croatia is the clear underdog at +400.

The odds aren’t in favour of Croatia getting a goal at +110 for both teams to score, but it’s fair to say that the European side will pose more of an attacking threat than any other team faced by Brazil so far at the World Cup.

Usually known for strong defensive play, Croatia has been distinctly middling in the shots allowed per game column, ranking 16th with 11.3 per game. Brazil ranks second in the tournament with 7.5 shots on target per game.

While it is the last line of the market, Brazil to have 6.5 shots on target or more at +125 will have its suitors for this December 9, 10 am ET kick-off. 

The South American outright favourites were relentless in the first half against the Korea Republic and have Neymar back and firing for that additional flair going forward.


Netherlands vs Argentina

Getting underway at 2 pm ET on December 9, the Netherlands will attempt to get the better of one of the early outright favourites to win the 2022 World Cup. 

The Dutch didn’t haven’t a particularly trying group, but managed to step up and control the game against the US in the round of 16. 

It took just ten minutes for Memphis Depay to shoot the Oranje into the lead, and continued dominance crafted the injury-time goal from Daley Blind.

The second half saw the US gradually go more and more all-in to get on the scoresheet, with the breakthrough coming 76 minutes in via a freakish goal from Haji Wright. 

With the Americans battling to get the equaliser, the Dutch absorbed the pressure and broke back multiple times, eventually leading to Denzel Dumfries making it 3-1 and the Netherlands seeing out the game. 

On paper, Argentina vs Australia shouldn’t have been too much hassle, but a late own goal made it a far more edgy game for the South Americans than it should have been. 

Ten minutes before half-time, Lionel Messi put Argentina ahead in his 1000th career game, with the young Julián Álvarez scoring before the hour-mark. 

The final 2-1 scoreline isn’t particularly flattering, but the Albicelestes controlled possession and had nearly three times as many shots as the Socceroos at 14 to five. 

Louis van Gaal has a well-drilled side, which is why the soccer odds have his Netherlands team as fairly close to the Messi-led Argentina. 

The Netherlands gets odds of +130 to qualify, while Argentina is just ahead at -165. To win the game in regular time, Argentina being out at +120 shows that this is expected to be a close game.

While the odds favour Argentina to win and not for both teams to score at +215, the Netherlands has the talent and aerial prowess to get on the scoresheet, lending many to the Argentina to win and both teams to score odds of +390. 

Of course, the hot bet for many will be Lionel Messi to add another goal to his impressive record. To score anytime, Messi gets odds of +150. 


Morocco vs Portugal

Through excellent defensive play and a willingness to wait out their opponents, Morocco has surpassed all odds to make it to the quarter-finals. 

With one more win, they’ll go further than any other African team at the FIFA World Cup. 

Against Spain, Walid Regragui rolled out his preferred 4-3-3, happy to cede the vast majority of possession and to trust in the strength of his defence and midfield to lay down the law. 

By the end of the 90 minutes, even with possession split 74 percent to 26 percent in favour of the Europeans, Morocco held Spain to five shots while taking four of their own. 

Spain piled on the pressure in extra time, with it taking a monumental effort from Morocco’s parked bus and goalie, Yassine Bounou. In the end, classy penalties from Morocco’s stars beat the lacklustre attempts of Spain.

For Portugal, a lot of the drama coming into the game focussed on head coach Fernando Santos benching Cristiano Ronaldo, but that quickly faded when his replacement, Gonçalo Ramos, found the back of the net.

Ramos opened the scoring just 17 minutes into the game, and veteran centre-back Pepe followed up before half-time. Precious little was offered to the Swiss during this time. 

Portugal came out gunning for more. By the 55th minute, Raphaël Guerreiro’s goal and a second from Ramos had A Seleção up 4-0. 

An equalizer was allowed through, but Ramos’ hattrick less than ten minutes later stopped any hopes of a comeback. Ronaldo was brought on to see Rafael Leão be the final scorer in the 6-1 rout.

Kicking off at 10 am ET on Saturday, December 10, while sport betting Canada followers want to see their group rivals progress, Portugal is well favoured to qualify at -333 to Morocco’s +250. 

Still, this Morocco side isn’t going to be a pushover, and it’s far easier for a well-versed defensive team to get the better of a good attack, as the African nation proved against Spain. 

Should Portugal net early, Morocco has the attacking talent to push the agenda and score, and they’re equally good enough to catch Portugal on the counter or with a set piece.

So, some will be eyeing up the +105 odds for both teams to score. Somewhat strangely, hattrick hero Ramos is at longer odds to score anytime than Ronaldo, coming in with odds of +170 and +130, respectively.


England vs France

In the final game of the 2022 World Cup quarter-finals, England meets France at 2 pm ET on December 10. 

The game will be a real test of England’s tactics, with the desire to hold the ball deep set to be tested by France’s onslaught of attacking stars and ravenous midfielders, including the top performer of the tournament so far: Kylian Mbappé. 

To make it here, England faced a potentially tricky opponent in Senegal, but the final 3-0 scoreline reflects their dominance in the game. 

Defensive midfielder Jordan Henderson scored a rare goal in the 38th minute, followed by star striker Harry Kane finally getting on the scoresheet just before half-time. 

Just before the hour-mark, Bukayo Saka got the third and all but put the game to bed to see England get to the quarter-finals comfortably.

France was mere seconds away from progressing from the last-16 with a mirrored result to England, but a relatively pointless VAR call for a questionable handball at the death resulted in it ending 3-1. 

Central midfielder Adrian Rabiot is right that Mbappé isn’t their only threat, but throughout the battle with Poland, France piled on offensive pressure by, for the most part, feeding Mbappé to torment right-back Matty Cash. 

Giving the superstar the ball worked a treat. He toyed with the Polish defence, set up the first goal to Olivier Giroud, and eventually worked his way into small pockets in the box to score two of his own. 

The game proved that even an inch given to Mbappé with the ball results in punishment, and in England vs France, head coach Gareth Southgate will likely rely on 32-year-old Kyle Walker and his nearest centre-back to keep the Frenchman out. 

Quite rightly, France is the favourite to qualify here. As the second-favourites in the outright World Cup odds, Les Bleus are also -135 to get past England, while the Three Lions are out at +110. 

Given the attacking potency of both sides, over 2.5 goals in the game at +100 will have its suitors, and to score them, few will look past Giroud at +220 and Mbappé at +150. 

Still, England will have a defence-first mindset coming into this, and will keep the ball along the back as much as possible while the score’s still tied, so a first-half tie in the three-way markets gets +100 odds. 


Let’s see how these favoured teams deal with the pressure of the World Cup quarter-finals. 


*Credit for all images in this article belongs to AP Photo*

 

FIRST PUBLISHED: 7th December 2022

Ben is very much a sports nerd, being obsessed with statistical deep dives and the numbers behind the results and performances.

Top of the agenda are hockey, soccer, and boxing, but there's always time for the NFL, cricket, Formula One, and a bit of mixed martial arts.