Set your alarms for Sunday morning! At 10 am ET on December 18, Argentina faces France in a superb match-up for the 2022 FIFA World Cup Final.
With so much talent on both sides of the ball, the oddsmakers are really struggling to back either team over the other.
While the illness reportedly hitting another player in the French camp may influence the odds closer to kick-off, here’s a look at the top betting picks right now.
World Cup Final Best Odds
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Over 39.5 Booking Points -213
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Over 20.5 Total Shots at Goal -161
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Rodrigo De Paul Over 70 Passes -125
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Lionel Messi 2+ Shots on Target +100
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Olivier Giroud to Score Anytime +260
Read on for more picks from the odds and predictions for the 2022 FIFA World Cup Final.
Argentina vs France: Same Odds to Lift the Trophy
At the time of writing, both France and Argentina are at -118 to lift the trophy. Based on how the teams have performed so far, it’s tough to argue with the idea that they are level-pegging.
To make it to the World Cup Final, Argentina had to get past 2018’s runners-up, Croatia, and by all accounts, Lionel Messi placed the burden on his shoulders.
After Messi scored a penalty in the 34th minute, Julián Álvarez pounced on the stunned Kockasti, making it 2-0 before the break with a superb solo run.
Argentina allowed Croatia most of the ball throughout, trusting their superb defensive structure and backline, which has been the real secret to the success of La Albiceleste.
Happy to go all-in on the attack when opportunities arose, Messi forced a save just before the hour-mark, and on 69 minutes, he pulled off a bit of magic to power down the line, get into the box, and put it on a plate for Álvarez.
Croatia had their moments, but Emiliano Martínez was only forced to make three saves, with Argentina soaring to a 3-0 victory.
France managed to coax Morocco out of its shell very early on, with Theo Hernández throwing his leg up to poke a high ball past Yassine Bounou just five minutes into the game.
With more of the ball and a need to score, Morocco played some nice football, even making Hugo Lloris pull off some saves that should be far beyond the reach of a 35-year-old.
Even without much possession, Les Bleus continued to generate chances, with Antoine Griezmann again being the main outlet to set attacks in motion.
In the 79th minute, Randal Kolo Muani came on for Ousmane Dembélé, found himself in the box, and made it 2-0 by tapping in a blocked effort forged from the ever-crafty Kylian Mbappé.
Now, these two exceedingly good teams will battle for the crown, and in the World Cup odds outright, they’re tied at -118 to lift the trophy, but Argentina has a narrow edge to win in 90 minutes at +175 to France’s +180.
Just as the outright odds have France and Argentina level, so too does the -1 spread to either side. France -1 and Argentina -1 on the spread are at +500.
While Argentina vs France deserves to be a close game, a team ahead late in the match scoring again could be expected as their opponents open up in last-gasp attempts to win it all.
Unless completely overwhelmed by a far more talented attack, more often than not, the better defensive team wins on these occasions, which will contribute to Argentina being the narrow full-time favourites.
#Qatar2022
— Selección Argentina 🇦🇷 (@Argentina) December 14, 2022
👋 ¡Buenas noches, finalistas! Que este sueño no se termine más 🙌 pic.twitter.com/ofX0v5DrDf
Argentina vs France: Will the South American Defence Continue to Hold?
Often overlooked because of the incredible performances of Messi, Argentina’s defence has been the best at the tournament, allowing a tournament-low of 5.7 shots and forcing 4.0 offside calls per game.
They’re very well drilled and get stuck in, quickly turning defence into breakaway attacks. Going the other way, France averages 15.3 shots per game, 5.5 of which are on target, while Argentina averages 13.3 and 6.2.
As it’s the World Cup Final, and the stage can get to players, over 39.5 booking points at -213 looks to be sound. With so many tricky speedsters, Argentina rank as the most fouled team at the 2022 World Cup, averaging 16.2 per game.
France has been incredibly clean, however, averaging only 8.2 fouls per game and only five bookings. Argentina, by all accounts, has been underserved bookings, collecting 12 so far while averaging 12.3 fouls per game.
In two games at this World Cup, the referee for the final, Szymon Marciniak, has called 18 fouls per game and given five total yellow cards.
Bound to be in the mix with a couple of tackles and interceptions is Argentina’s midfielder Rodrigo De Paul. For betting, he looks to be a solid pick to hit over 70 passes at -125, with his tournament average being 78.7.
It’s the play of the likes of De Paul and France’s more standoffish defence that looks to give La Albiceleste a fair few looks on goal, with Messi at +100 to fire two or more on target and Argentina to score over 1.5 goals at +190.
France is, by far, the most offensively gifted team that Argentina has met so far, so we can expect the defence to cede more than their average of 5.7 shots per game; over 20.5 total shots at goal in the game at -161 looks good.
Everyone watching the World Cup Final will want a high-scoring game. Despite the defensive ability of both sides, goalscorer odds will be all the rage.
Messi, as you’d assume, leads the anytime goalscorer markets at +162, with Mbappé just behind at +188. Perhaps the more savvy selection, however, is Olivier Giroud.
France’s frontman got some rest in the Morocco game, has been electric in the box, and has essentially bullied his way to four goals already.
Giroud’s at +260 to score anytime, with fellow physical centre forward Wout Weghorst already showing him the template of how to do so against this stout Argentina backline earlier in the tournament.
𝐎𝐍 𝐄𝐒𝐓 𝐄𝐍 𝐅𝐈𝐍𝐀𝐋𝐄 𝐃𝐄 𝐋𝐀 𝐂𝐎𝐔𝐏𝐄 𝐃𝐔 𝐌𝐎𝐍𝐃𝐄 ! 🔥🔥🔥#FiersdetreBleus pic.twitter.com/xEC82Tr88x
— Equipe de France ⭐⭐ (@equipedefrance) December 14, 2022
Argentina vs France is a most fitting World Cup Final, and while the focus will be on Messi vs Mbappé, look to the defensive efforts to decide the game at the Lusail Stadium.
*Credit for all images in this article belongs to AP Photo*
FIRST PUBLISHED: 16th December 2022
