NFL Super Bowl Odds & Tips
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Chiefs +0.5 Second Half Spread
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Patrick Mahomes Over 292.5 Passing and Rushing Yards
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Deebo Samuel Over 79.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards
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Travis Kelce Over 0.5 Receiving Touchdowns
Super Bowl LVIII in Paradise, Nevada, is almost upon us, staging a rematch of Super Bowl LIV that won Patrick Mahomes his first ring and MVP award.
Once again, the Kansas City Chiefs enter the lines as the underdogs at +105 on the moneyline and are given the +1.5 on the spread for odds of -110.
The San Francisco 49ers are the marginal favourites in the NFL odds, with a healthy -133 on the moneyline and -118 to win -1.5 on the spread.
On the face of it, Super Bowl LVIII has the makings of an exciting, high-scoring game with superstars and game-changers on both sides of the ball whenever it’s snapped, but rarely does the modern game play out as expected!
Second Half Spread
Even if the odds are leaning towards the 49ers lifting the Lombardi Trophy, Patrick Mahomes will still be getting the ball plenty, and he tends to do his best work under pressure and at the death.
With the reality-check Super Bowl LV to one side, both times the Chiefs and Mahomes have won the Super Bowl, they’ve come to life in the second half.
Super Bowl LIV saw them outscore the 49ers 21-10 in the second half, and last year, at Super Bowl LVII, to make up for trailing 24-14, Mahomes and Chiefs surged to a 24-11 second half scoreline to take the day.
On the second half spread line, the Chiefs get odds of -120 at +0.5, which makes them the favourite against the 49ers’ -105 odds for -0.5 on the spread.
This angle is also one to keep in mind at halftime in the live betting. The Chiefs have a knack for making the second half a spectacle at the Super Bowl, so keep an eye on that moneyline – especially if the 49ers are up.
Under/Over 292.5 Pass + Rush Yards (Mahomes)
While he certainly has a reliable ground option in the form of Isiah Pacheco, who has been helping to keep defences honest, Mahomes should be slinging the ball around early and often.
He’s become more reserved than when he broke onto the scene, making many more conservative plays rather than regularly being pinned into the big-play moments. The enhanced offensive line has helped with this.
It’s made him a far more menacing opponent for defences, especially as he still has a scamper in his locker. In the Super Bowl, Mahomes averages 246 passing yards and 35.3 rushing yards.
Look for Mahomes to put on a show as a dual threat once again, beating the over line of 292.5 passing and rushing yards combined for odds of -120.
Under/Over 79.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (Samuel)
Naturally, all eyes will be on Christian McCaffrey and his incredible ability on the ball regardless of how it gets in his hands, but when fit, Deebo Samuel regularly pops up as the switchblade that catches opponents off-guard.
Last time out, against a ferocious Detroit Lions side, Samuel was handed the rock three times for seven yards and caught eight of his nine targets to add 89 more.
This season, blighted by inconsistent playing time due to injury, he’s eclipsed 70 scrimmage yards eight times, going for over 80 yards on seven of those occasions.
The Chiefs managed to stop the vaunted ground game of the Baltimore Ravens to make it to the Super Bowl, mostly by blitzing Lamar Jackson in the first half.
Brock Purdy might be looking to his safety valve more often, relying on finding Samuel’s number in unexpected places, and swiftly.
At Super Bowl LVIII, Deebo Samuel has the ability to conquer the rushing and receiving yards over line of 79.5 yards, which comes in at odds of -120.
Under/Over 0.5 Receiving Touchdowns (Kelce)
Travis Kelce continues to be the man who Patrick Mahomes can and will trust the most in any situation. He may technically play as a tight end, but his aerial stats rival some of the best receivers in the NFL.
Boasting two Super Bowl victories, seven 1,000-yard seasons, and 156 postseason receptions cements his place in the Hall of Fame already, but the 34-year-old certainly isn’t done yet.
At Super Bowl LIV, he scored a touchdown against the 49ers. At Super Bowl LV, the Chiefs were stopped from getting in the end zone, but he still managed to accumulate 133 yards. Last year, he also got a Super Bowl TD.
His five regular season touchdowns are certainly low for Kelce, but in the last two postseason outings, the tight end has scored three times and put up 191 yards through the air.
With odds of +105, let’s see Travis Kelce beat the over 0.5 receiving touchdowns at Super Bowl LVIII.
For this year’s grand finale to the NFL season, we’ll be looking to the Chiefs coming on strong in the second half, as well as Mahomes, Samuel, and Kelce beating their over lines.
*Credit for all images in this article belongs to Alamy*
