NFL Conference Weekend Odds & Tips
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Chiefs @ Ravens: Ravens to Win
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Lions @ 49ers: Lions +6.5
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Chiefs @ Ravens: Lamar Jackson Over 0.5 Rushing TDs
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Lions @ 49ers: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 75.5 Scrimmage Yards
Four teams are just one more win away from the promised land, Super Bowl LVIII.
Joining the usual suspects – the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers – will be the feel-good story of the season, the Detroit Lions, and an excellent Baltimore Ravens side.
It’s a huge step forward for what has notoriously been one of the NFL’s worst franchises, and while the odds aren’t in their favour, there’s a tremendous amount of momentum and fandom pushing the Lions onwards.
Here’s a look at the upcoming AFC and NFC Conference games, as well as free betting picks for this penultimate round of the playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens
After a couple of early slip-ups, not helped by major injuries, the Baltimore Ravens have proven themselves to be one of, if not the best team in the NFL this season.
Having topped the AFC, the Ravens entered the playoffs against the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round and certainly announced their arrival.
The game ended 34-10, and even that could be considered flattering for the Texans. Lamar Jackson showcased his dual-threat abilities to the maximum while the defence held the Texans’ offence to three points from 213 yards.
Now, there’s even some optimism that elite-tier safety and tight-end Marlon Humphrey and Mark Andrews will return from long spells out just in time to stick it to the Chiefs.
The defending Super Bowl champions certainly took the trickier path to the Conference Finals, needing to stifle the high-powered Miami Dolphins (26-7) and get the better of their old foes once again.
In another epic rumble between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, it was Mahomes’ offence and, in particular, the Kansas City defence that won the day.
Tyler Bass’ whiffed 44-yard field-goal attempt was the final nail in Buffalo’s coffin, but the defence – particularly the secondary – excelled beforehand, stopping the Bills from making a play of 20 yards or longer all game.
There’s a bit of history between the Chiefs and Ravens, but with the most recent clash coming in the 2021 regular season, not a whole lot can be drawn from the four meets with Mahomes and Jackson under center.
Since 2018, when both superstar quarterbacks entered the NFL proper, the Chiefs have won 27-24 in overtime, 33-28, and 34-20 when visiting in 2020. Still, in 2021, the Ravens eked out a 36-35 win on home soil.
Coming into the AFC Conference Final, the Ravens are the clear moneyline favourites, and with good reason. At -200, Baltimore will have plenty of backers.
Looking more closely at the events of the game, it’s clear that Jackson is on fire and hurtling towards MVP status, so this tip goes to taking the NFL odds of +105 for Jackson to score over 0.5 rushing touchdowns.
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers
Coming out on top 31-23 hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers might look like an advancement on the intense 24-23 win over the Los Angeles Rams, but the Detroit Lions didn’t make it easy.
Jared Goff struggled early on, and the run game, predominantly spearheaded by David Montgomery, was smothered throughout the first half. Luckily, the QB and his rookie back came alive later in the game.
To commence the fourth, Goff led two touchdown drives of 75 yards and 89 yards to establish a strong lead, which was undoubtedly buoyed by the 31-yard touchdown run from Jahmyr Gibbs to boost him to 114 scrimmage yards.
San Francisco endured rough conditions and the loss of their most versatile offensive weapon to eventually claim a 24-21 win over the Green Bay Packers in the Divisional Round.
It was a grim day in which Brock Purdy consistently struggled to connect with his receivers, but did manage to end the day with 252 yards and a touchdown. Christian McCaffrey’s explosiveness was a major factor in the win.
The back’s 30 yards on seven receptions helped to ease a bit of the pressure, but it was his 39-yard run en route to totalling 98 yards and two touchdowns on the ground that proved decisive.
Still, with Aaron Jones being the first to exceed 100 yards against the 49ers in 50 games and Deebo Samuel’s shoulder injury being too painful to examine on Monday, it was hardly a win without a need to adjust.
The 49ers are 0-2 this season without Samuel, and their average yards per play sinks from 7.1 yards to 5.6 yards, so if he does miss the NFC Conference Final, the aerial game will take a huge hit.
Even without Samuel, though, this 49ers team is elite-tier in just about every regard. A league-leading nine 49ers will be off to the 2024 Pro Bowl, while only five Lions made the cut.
Now, seeking to avoid becoming the fifth team to lose in this game three seasons running, the 49ers enter as the heavy favourites on the spread at -6.5 (-118) and moneyline (-333).
A few things we know about the Lions at this stage are that they have the grit to battle to the end and that they have an offensive coordinator (Ben Johnson) who can flip the script and pull surprisingly effective plays out of the bag.
So, with sport betting odds of -110 and -118, look for the Lions on the +6.5 spread and for Jahmyr Gibbs to amass over 75.5 rushing and receiving yards combined.
Our NFL picks for the Conference Finals side with Lamar Jackson leading the Ravens to the Super Bowl and the Lions to keep to within a touchdown of the 49ers by the time the clock hits 0:00.
NFL 2023 Season Preview
We’re a little over a month away from the start of the 2023 NFL season, and while it may be a bit too early to be drafting your fantasy team, it’s the perfect time to see which teams the odds are siding with.
Commencing on Thursday, September 7, with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the upstart Detroit Lions, each team will then compete in 17 games before the very best enter into the playoffs.
As is often the case in preseason future odds, it’s the reigning champions who’re the favourites to take the 2023 Super Bowl, with the Chiefs at +550 in the betting markets. Still, they’re not exactly the heavy favourites as it stands.
Biggest 2023 NFL Offseason Stories
Once again, the NFL saw a lot of turnover and movement from its players and coaching staff. Perhaps most importantly for the league, however, was the eventual $6.05bn sale of the Washington Commanders to get Dan Snyder out of the picture.
Whether this will allow the Commanders to finally kick on and become relevant in the NFL again is yet to be seen. Also helping to begin a resurgence for flailing teams is the talented batch of rookie quarterbacks from the 2023 draft.
The Carolina Panthers traded up to grab Bryce Young at No. 1, the Houston Texans took C.J. Stroud with their second overall selection, and then the Indianapolis Colts snagged the impressive athleticism of Anthony Richardson at No. 4.
Each of these new QBs has a tremendous amount of potential and showcased a high tier of ability in college football, but none are expected to make enough of an impact to transform their teams into instant playoff contenders.
Staying with QBs a bit more, Aaron Rogers seeks to help the ever-building New York Jets realize their potential, while one of the most impressive teams in the NFL has several question marks dotted around its slinger.
The San Francisco 49ers could stick with unlikely hero Brock Purdy, who went from “Mr. Irrelevant” to being pivotal in a run to the NFC Championship Game.
However, the highly-rated youngster Trey Lance may finally go a season without a surgery-causing injury, and Sam Darnold is also on the roster.
Elsewhere, we saw the Super Bowl finalists, the Philadelphia Eagles, lose both of their coordinators, but the roster seems strong and experienced enough that the losses shouldn’t be too much of a hindrance.
Over in Denver, Sean Payton has taken over as head coach. So far, he’s padded the running back room with Samaje Perine and buffed up the offensive line to hopefully bring out the best in Russell Wilson at QB.
This may also be the season that Lamar Jackson has a supporting cast worthy of his talent. With his contract situation settled fairly quickly – but not without fuss – Jackson can now look forward to being behind a strong offensive line with some tremendous options across the field.
The big story plaguing the league, though, is how it underrates running backs. Many contract disputes are still in the air, and all of Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Kareem Hunt, and Leonard Fournette remain as free agents – all are in their physical prime at 28-years-old or younger.
Which Team Will Win the NFC in 2023?
The team favoured to win the NFC in 2023 is the Philadelphia Eagles at +300 in the NFL odds, followed by the 49ers at +350, Dallas Cowboys at +600, and Detroit Lions at +900.
While they did lose a couple of big names, arguably, the Eagles were one of the top performers in the 2023 draft, gearing up the defence even further with a few out of Georgia, while on the other side of the ball, they still have all of their key passing weapons and what might be the best offensive line in the NFL again.
The Cowboys addressed their biggest need, upgrading the run defence, and their offence should be as potent as last season – even with the running back tandem moving almost entirely to Tony Pollard.
They’re the narrow second-favourites, but there’s certainly a case to be made for the 49ers being the best team in the NFC: it’s just that lingering question about who the lead QB will be.
As shown last season, Kyle Shanahan can create a serviceable QB out of just about anyone, but most will be hoping for either Lance to finally break out into his potential or Darnold to thrive in the first favourable environment of his career.
If the 49ers can establish a go-to and healthy QB in the first couple of games, they should be graded as the top team in the NFC, sporting the best defence and a collection of offensive weapons that’s the envy of the league.
Which Team Will Win the AFC in 2023?
Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are still seen as being the ultimate duo in modern football, with the Kansas City Chiefs graded at +330 to win the AFC Championship Game.
Seemingly forever bridesmaids, the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals come in at +450 and +500, respectively, while the New York Jets (+800) aim to throw a stick in the spokes of the AFC race.
Easily the most intriguing of the bunch with what might be the highest ceiling of the dark horse contenders is the Baltimore Ravens at +1100. Everything looks to have fallen into place this offseason.
Lamar Jackson is happy; he’ll be throwing to Odell Beckham Jr., Rashford Bateman, Zay Flowers, Nelson Agholor, and Mark Andrews, will be protected by a top-five offensive line, and should have J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards to hand off to – and if either of those backs go down, Justice Hill and Melvin Gordon III are waiting in the wings.
That’s a stacked offence for one of the most talented QBs in the game, but it’s just as exciting on the other side of the ball. The secondary alone contains Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters, Marcus Williams, and Kyle Hamilton.
In the trenches is where the Ravens may be a bit lacking, but it’s entirely possible that Odafe Oweh could enjoy a big breakout season. Importantly, the NFL is a pass-heavy league now, and the Ravens boast a top-five secondary.
It’s very clear that the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills will join the Kansas City Chiefs as early frontrunners and top-five teams in the whole league, but there’s enough about this Ravens team to potentially upset them all.
Of course, the NFL season is long and arduous for players, and one of the biggest reasons why the favourites don’t fulfil their potential each season is injuries.
These top contenders will need a bit of luck, and if they get it, they’ll remain the frontrunners for their conference titles and Super Bowl LVIII.
*Credit for all images in this article belongs to AP Photo*
