NFL: Divisional Round Picks and Predictions

After a truly wild Wild Card round, the NFL playoffs have boiled down to eight teams in four superb match-ups. At least five of these teams would be deemed worthy of winning Super Bowl LVII.

Entering the Divisional Round, it’s the Kansas City Chiefs heading up the sport betting Canada odds to win it all, out at +275, with the Buffalo Bills just behind at +300.

With the Eagles, 49ers, Giants, Cowboys, Bengals, and Jaguars also taking to the field this weekend, here are our predictions and top betting picks for this year’s NFL Divisional Round.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs Predictions

Pick 1: Chiefs -4.5 (-200)
Pick 2: Kelce Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Pick 3: Lawrence Over 34.5-yard Pass Completion (-120)

Easily the biggest surprise entrant to the NFL Division Round, the Jacksonville Jaguars rallied from 27 points down to get past the Los Angeles Chargers 31-30, even though Trevor Lawrence threw four interceptions.

It’s Lawrence’s never-say-die attitude and the formidable offence of the Chiefs that means he’ll want to go big – probably to Christian Kirk – at some point, which lends him to hitting a pass of over 34.5 yards for -120 in the game.

Arguably, cornerback L’Jarius Sneed has been a top-15 performer in the position this season, as has Trent McDuffie in coverage, but the Jags like their horizontal routes and will be banking on speedster-driven yards after the catch.

On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs are expected to dominate through the seemingly unstoppable duo of Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce.

The Jags rank 28th against the pass this season and allow the most yards per attempt to tight ends at 9.6, putting Kelce in line to hit over 79.5 receiving yards at odds of -120.

As for the result, the Jaguars will mostly be relying on Lawrence to produce some magic again, while the Chiefs can play their usual elite passing game, so Chiefs -4.5 on the points spread looks to be a strong pick at -200.

It's time to take it up a notch.@PatrickMahomes | #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/8kLLw0otnS
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 16, 2023

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs starts at 16:30 ET on Saturday, January 21.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles Predictions

Pick 1: Eagles -9.5 (+110)
Pick 2: Goedert Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Pick 3: Sanders Over 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns (+115)

Daniel Jones may be having a career year, but make no mistake; the Philadelphia Eagles are ready to pick apart this New York Giants outfit, akin to their 48-22 demolition job in Week 14.

Jalen Hurts had an additional week to further recover from his shoulder injury and comes up against a defence that’s allowed 21 passing touchdowns and ranks 27th with 144.2 rushing yards allowed per game.

Even if Hurts doesn’t want to risk the big passing plays, the ground game will be able to push through, giving Miles Sanders a chance to capitalize on his +115 odds of scoring a rushing touchdown.

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Dallas Goedert also looks to be a fine choice for getting the ball, especially at -125 to get over 48.5 receiving yards. The blitz-loving Giants regularly struggle to contain tight ends in the passing game.

In the throwaway meet between these two at the end of the regular season, Goedert landed six receptions for 46 yards, and against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 16 and the Wild Card Round, T.J. Hockenson blazed past 100 yards.

Given the might of the Eagles on both sides of the ball, this Divisional Round tie looks to be a blowout in favour of Philadelphia, so look at the longer points spread of Eagles -9.5 at +110.

Goedert bringing the ENERGY to the sidelines@DraftKings | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/ptnZeglfWx
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) January 16, 2023

New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles starts at 20:15 ET on Saturday, January 21.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills Predictions

Pick 1: Bengals +3.5 (+110)
Pick 2: Allen Over 0.5 Interceptions (-175)
Pick 3: Under 49.5 Points (-125)

Both of these high-powered units would make for worthy Super Bowl contenders, and this game looks to be a very close one. The Bills are heavily favoured along the money line at -250, but the Bengals can keep it close.

Given Cincinnati’s noted ability to capitalize on opposition mistakes and dominate if allowed to put pressure on the quarterback, they can’t be counted out, so +110 for Bengals +3.5 in the NFL spreads looks to be a strong pick.

Helping to add some backing to the Bengals being allowed to keep it close is the turnover rate of the Bills. Josh Allen has thrown 16 interceptions in 2022/23 and is at -175 to do so again against a defence with 13 picks this season.

While the offences are notoriously explosive, the Bengals allow the third-fewest passing touchdowns (Bills 9th), and the Bills allow the sixth-fewest rushing touchdowns (Bengals joint-10th).

Both defences can be trusted to step up for their teams, so playing it safe at -125 for under 49.5 points in the game is one of our NFL betting picks here.

That’s playoff football, bring on the next.

Locker Room Celly | @KetteringHealth pic.twitter.com/W8sADkWaWr
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) January 16, 2023

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills starts at 15:00 ET on Sunday, January 22.

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers Predictions

Pick 1: 49ers -3.5 (-109)
Pick 2: McCaffrey Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
Pick 3: Aiyuk Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

The Dallas Cowboys put on a show to tear apart the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but they’re undoubtedly at a disadvantage against this league-leading San Francisco 49ers side and their -200 odds to win on the money line.

The 49ers are a mighty unit across the field, with even rookie third-string QB Brock Purdy finding heaps of success with Kyle Shanahan’s plays. Just as importantly, the 49ers have enjoyed a lot of rest while Dallas has been all over the country.

Playing and staying at Levi’s Stadium on Saturday gives the 49ers an eight-day window to rest and prepare. The Cowboys schlepped all of the way to Florida for the Monday night game and now cross three time zones to get to California.

Throw in the injuries to Jayron Kearse and Jason Peters in the Bucs game, and the disadvantage to the Cowboys grows even greater.

Expect the 49ers to be as physical as ever, pressure Dak Prescott immensely, and come away with a solid victory. The home team’s at -109 with -3.5 on the spread, which is a good pick for this game.

Benefitting from Purdy under centre, Brandon Aiyuk looks set to light up this match-up. He’s secured at least 59 receiving yards in each of the last four games and is at -125 to get past the 53.5-mark in the Divisional Round.

Should Purdy be put under pressure often or the 49ers surge to an early lead, Christian McCaffrey will see plenty of the ball. In the last four games, he’s had at least ten carries for rushing totals of 46, 121, 45, and 119 yards.

So, McCaffrey’s pattern would lean towards a more modest day, but with the Cowboys offering the 11th most rushing yards this season, the elite back looks primed to hit that 65.5 rushing yard mark at -125.