Fittingly, the 2022 MLS campaign will conclude with the two teams boasting the best regular season records meeting in the MLS Cup Final on Saturday, November 5.
Coming from the Eastern Conference, this MLS Cup Final appearance is the result of several seasons of tough rebuilding and the shaping of a gritty team under Jim Curtin.
In the Western Conference, the big-money Los Angeles FC proved as dominant as they did in 2019 – their second season of play – surging to the top under first-year head coach Steven Cherundolo.
With both teams boasting 67 points in the regular season (LAFC won the Supporters’ Shield due to more wins, rather than Union’s vastly superior +46 goal difference being the tie-breaker), this MLS Cup Final could be very close.
Top 2022 MLS Cup Final Preview Bets
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Los Angeles FC to Win Outright (-275)
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Both Teams to Score (-188)
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Over 2.5 Goals (-188)
Read on for a deep dive into the stats driving these MLS Cup Final preview betting picks.
Tale of the Tape: LAFC vs Philadelphia Union
LAFC and Philadelphia Union met once this season, with that game resulting in a 2-2 tie at the Banc of California Stadium. Philly struck first in the to-and-fro match, taking the lead twice.
Interestingly, neither of Los Angeles’ vaunted forwards, Cristian Arango or Carlos Vela, found the back of the net, while two of Union’s top three scorers, Dániel Gazdag and Julián Carranza, did.
Much has been made about Philadelphia’s attacking prowess – putting up 76 goals to LAFC’s 72 goals in the regular season and playoffs so far – and yet, it’s Philly’s 27 goals against to this point that’s the most impressive.
Even with this in mind, LAFC enters the MLS Cup Final as the heavy favourite. The home side gets odds of -133 to win in 90 minutes, while another tie is at +295, and Union winning in regulation is at a distant +310 when betting online.
Excluding the 90-minute bracket and additional playing time, LAFC is at -275 to win the MLS Cup Final.
One of the factors helping this is Jim Curtin’s record against Los Angles. Admittedly, he’s been running a mostly rebuilding team over the years, but the head coach’s record against LAFC reads zero wins, three ties, and one loss.
More importantly, however, Los Angeles FC is at home for the 2022 MLS Cup Final, which makes a huge difference.
LIFT. THAT. CUP. PHILLY. 🏆 pic.twitter.com/9RVbQsoHVF
— x - PhilaUnion (@PhilaUnion) October 31, 2022
Home Side Gets the Nod for the MLS Cup Final
In the context of the MLS Cup Final, the way that the MLS swings, and how these two teams have performed throughout the season, having the home stadium advantage makes a huge difference.
LAFC has made the Banc of California Stadium a fortress, going 15-2-2 (including the playoffs), with Philadelphia owning one of those two ties. The Black and Gold did, however, concede in 12 of those 19 home games.
The U went 7-5-5 on the road, and even though the team has only conceded two or more goals on four occasions, all four of them were away from Subaru Park.
LAFC being leaky winners at home and the Union being high-scoring but susceptible to road routs had been factored into the soccer odds, which have both teams to score at -188 and over 2.5 goals at -188.
For the result itself, these stats certainly slide in favour of LAFC, and so does MLS Cup Final history.
In 2012, the MLS switched to the top team hosting the final, but in 2011, the eventual winners just happened to host as well. So, since 2011, the hosts have won eight of the 11 finals – a 72.7 percent win rate for home sides.
Of the three away team triumphs, two came via penalty shootouts, while only one MLS Cup Final in that span needed to go to penalties when home sides came out with the Philip F. Anschutz Trophy.
✔️ Supporters' Shield
— LAFC (@LAFC) October 30, 2022
✔️ Western Conference
🔜 🏆#ForLosAngeles pic.twitter.com/EhMPTiFLeb
Most top divisions weigh the head-to-head wins and goal difference records or plain goal difference to settle tie-breakers in league standings. So, the Union could be looking at the 2022 MLS Cup Final location as a cruel twist of fate.
Regardless, the underdog Philly Union will need to put in its strongest showing of the season to defy the odds and beat a home team featuring former world-class stars that have won heaps of silverware.
At home, LAFC is the favourite to win this MLS Cup Final.
*Credit for all images in this article belongs to AP Photo*
FIRST PUBLISHED: 2nd November 2022
