Defying the money line, the Cincinnati Bengals cruised to victory against the Buffalo Bills to earn a place in the AFC Championship game.
In time for the 6:30 pm ET kick-off on Sunday, January 29, the Bengals will be travelling to Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs.
While the Chiefs did stop the surging Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City didn’t come out unscathed, with Patrick Mahomes reportedly suffering from a high-ankle sprain.
It’s this revelation that has led to the NFL betting lines shifting. Now, the road team is the favourite to win the AFC Championship game, coming in at -125 on the money line.
Best Bengals vs Chiefs Odds (Jan. 29)
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Money Line: Bengals -125, Chiefs +105
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Total Points: Under 48.5 -133, Over 48.5 +110
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Spread: -1.5 Bengals or +1.5 Chiefs -109
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Chris Jones Over 0.5 Sacks: -118
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Ja’Marr Chase Over 0.5 Receiving Touchdowns: +105
Read on to find our preview of the Bengals vs Chiefs AFC Championship Game, as well as our betting predictions and picks.
Bengals Edge Ahead of Chiefs in 2023 AFC Championship Preview
The Kansas City Chiefs may be the home team and the higher seed, which usually results in passage to the Super Bowl from the AFC Championship, but the Cincinnati Bengals are marginally favoured to win on Sunday.
There are a few factors playing into this, with the first being the recent head-to-head record. Over the last three games, the Bengals have defeated the Chiefs by exactly three points in each game.
Tracking back to January 2, 2022, the Bengals have won 34-31 at home, 27-24 at Arrowhead in the 2022 AFC Championship game, and 27-24 in Ohio earlier this season.
Across these meets, Ja’Marr Chase collected 417 receiving yards and four touchdowns through the air – although, 266 yards and a hat-trick of those scores came in the January 2, 2022, meet.
Joe Mixon was also effective in the first two of these games with 86 and 115 scrimmage yards, while Samaje Perine was called upon this season to put up 155 yards of his own.
In the duel of the quarterbacks, Joe Burrow gets the edge over Mahomes in passing touchdowns (8-6), interceptions (1-2), and passing yards (982-754).
Adding further doubts to Mahomes being able to shake off this bogey team, the stud quarterback suffered an ankle injury during the Divisional Round, played through the pain, and is recovering this week.
Head coach Andy Reid says that Mahomes is in the mindset to play, but a high-ankle sprain isn’t going to be easy to handle and will hinder his ability to conduct plays on the fly, which may also limit Travis Kelce somewhat.
The Bengals aren’t without their injury issues, but the banged-up offensive line did remarkably well against the Buffalo Bills, which is helped by Burrow being superb at making super-fast passing plays – many of which go to #1, Chase.
Another helpful titbit siding in favour of the Bengals is their away record. Cincinnati went 7-3 on their travels this season, winning the last five of those, and when the bookmakers see the Chiefs as home underdogs since 2021, they’ve gone 0-2, per CBS Sports.
"We're built for this. It doesn't matter what anybody thinks about us. We don't care who's favored, who's not. We're built for this." - Zac Taylor
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) January 24, 2023
Bengals vs Chiefs Betting Picks and Predictions
In these betting picks and predictions for the Bengals vs Chiefs game, we’re siding with the Bengals to win on the money line at -125 and with the -1.5 spread odds of -109.
The Chiefs are certainly still dangerous even with a hindered Mahomes, but there’s a lot in favour of the Bengals, even if it may have been the recent news of Mahomes’ injury that moved the betting lines.
However, many will be intrigued by the +3.5 Chiefs line on the spread, as each of the last three games between these two has ended with a three-point margin.
At -161, though, the odds seem a bit short for history to repeat a fourth time – assuming that the Bengals will win, that is.
Backing some Kansas City success, terrifying lineman Chris Jones could make the most of the Bengals’ broken-but-functional offensive line and is at -118 to record a sack and add to his 15.5 on the season.
The Bengals vs Chiefs fixture has consistently produced high-octane offensive efforts from both teams, with the average total points over the last three games sitting at 55.7 and never dipping below 51 points in that span.
With this in mind, the Bengals set to go all-out, and the Mahomes-Kelce connection being as strong as ever, the total points pick here goes against the favourite on the NFL lines and with over 48.5 points at +110.
For some more player props, few would look beyond Chase having a strong game. He loves playing the Chiefs, and when Burrow is making his quick plays, he invariably targets Chase, so over 0.5 touchdowns for Chase at +105 is a good pick.
Running back Joe Mixon has also found success against the Chiefs in the passing and rushing game, making his -120 to exceed 87.5 scrimmage yards in this game appealing.
The world will be watching. pic.twitter.com/bBkDvtuns1
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 23, 2023
Bengals vs Chiefs never fails to entertain when Mahomes and Burrow are under centre, but there’s a lot stacked in favour of the visitors in the 2023 AFC Championship game.
*Credit for all images in this article belongs to AP Photo*
FIRST PUBLISHED: 25th January 2023
